USD/CAD Tightens As WTI Crude Rallies

Posted Tuesday, May 14, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Monday delivered a whipsaw trading session for WTI crude oil. A large daily range was the ultimate result, produced by attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and U.S./China tariff escalation. Subsequently, the USD/CAD put in a strong Monday before settling into a tight Tuesday session.

However, the coming 24 hours are likely to shake the USD/CAD out of its relative slumber. Tomorrow’s BoC CPI (April) and U.S. Retail Sales (April) are both primary market movers. By Wednesday’s opening bell on Wall Street, the Loonie may look very different than it does right now.

USD/CAD: Daily Technicals

The 1.3500 level is still playing a key role in trade of the Loonie. Sellers have defended this area for the past three forex trading days. If it finally does give way, this market may be headed for a hard test of the 78% Weekly Retracement (1.3532).

USD/CAD, Daily Chart
USD/CAD, Daily Chart

For the remainder of today’s session, here are a few levels to keep an eye on:

  • Resistance(1): Key Number, 1.3500
  • Support(1): Daily SMA, 1.3453

Overview: Market fundamentals are going to play an important role in midweek trade of the USD/CAD. Experts are projecting the BoC CPI Core (April) to rise, with Canada’s aggregate CPI levels to fall on a monthly and yearly basis. Conversely, U.S. Retail Sales are expected to fall significantly from levels observed in March.

In addition to these metrics, it will be important to not forget about the crude oil inventory cycle kicking off later this afternoon. If we see a large draw on supply, and tensions grow in the Middle-East, then the USD/CAD may be ready to fall as WTI crude oil rallies.

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