US GDP in Focus

Daily Briefing, May 15 – Market Wrap & Key Economic Events to Watch Today

Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Market Wrap

  • Global stock markets exhibited a bullish day yesterday as worries over trade war eased slightly.
  • The major US markets concluded positively with the Nasdaq once again leading the charge, up 1.14%, followed by the S&P and Dow, both closing around 0.8% higher.
  • The Greenback jumped higher as the day progressed, trading back up around 97.50.
  • Lastly, the UK labor market figures remained mixed as the Average Earnings Index fell to 3.2% and the Unemployment Rate improved to 3.8%.

What’s Next?

Looking ahead to today’s session, traders will be focusing on the latest Prelim GDP q/q from Germany. Whereas, the New York session has some significant data scheduled with the US Retail Sales and the Canadian CPI. We’re also set to hear from FOMC member Quarles later in the day. Let’s take a more in-depth look at these economic events.

EUR – German Prelim GDP q/q
The biggest economy in Europe dodged a recession, but only just. It remained flat in the last quarter of 2018 after narrowing previously.

Today during the European hours at 6:00 GMT, investors will be monitoring the German GDP figures for Q1 2019. Destatis is anticipated to exhibit a faster economic growth, with output in the Eurozone’s top economy scoring 0.4%. The GDP is improved from -0.2% to 0.0% in the preceding period.

What if German Reports Slower GDP today?
Well, the Euro may get hit hard as the slower growth in the economy will put pressure on the ECB president Mario Draghi to keep the accommodative monetary policy.

CAD – CPI m/m
This is the most crucial inflation-related release due to its earliness and broad scope. This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it’s the calculation most commonly reported.

The Candian inflation improved but remained steady at 0.7% in April as increasing crude oil price benefits this crude oil exporting economy. Today, economists are expecting a 0.4% rise in the inflation rate this month.

USD – Retail Sales m/m
The Census Bureau is due to release the retail sales data at 12:30 GMT. It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In April, retail sales grew by 1.6% vs. the forecast of 0.9%.

This month, economists are expecting a 0.2% rise in retail sales and a 0.7% rise in core retail sales. A higher number of sales indicate higher inflation and a growing economy. So, the positive retail sales figure will be considered good for the Greenback.

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