EIA report

The spring buying season for WTI crude oil has been a major disappointment for energy bulls thus far. Since rollover from the June to July WTI crude oil futures contract, price has consolidated in the area of $62.50-$64.00. Is it time for the pre-Memorial Day weekend bull run in WTI pricing?

It certainly looks that way. With inventories on deck and the market compressed in a key daily technical area, the table is set for a 2 or 3 dollar move above $64.00. Here is a quick look at the consensus expectations for this week’s inventories:

Event                                       Projections       Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks                      NA                  8.60M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks                 -2.530M             5.431M

One thing is for certain ― a repeat of last week’s massive builds is unlikely. In the event that the API and EIA show a decrease in supply as expected, a run at $66.00 will become highly probable.

July WTI Crude Oil Futures Is Fond Of The $62.50-$64.00 Zone

For the past three sessions, July WTI crude has tightened near the $63.00 level. The technical formation has become compressed between the Daily SMA and Bollinger MP. One way or another, this market is primed for a move.

July WTI Crude Oil (CL), Daily Chart
July WTI Crude Oil (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch going into this week’s inventories:

  • Resistance(1): Daily SMA, $63.33
  • Resistance(2): 62% Retracement, $64.02
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, $62.59

Overview: My read of this market is simple: bullish above $64.02, bearish below $62.60. Each of these are prime scalping entries, with a buy at $64.03 or sell at $62.59 highly likely to produce a fast 5-8 ticks profit.

Today’s close is going to be pivotal for the mid and late-week trade of WTI. If we see tight trade following the API number, then a directional move is all but assured by Thursday’s closing bell. Settlement above the Daily SMA hasn’t happened since May 1 ― this would be an extremely bullish signal moving toward late-May trade.

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