Daily Briefing, May 30: Economic Events Outlook, Trading Gold on US GDP
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Good morning, fellas.
After US stock indexes posted new record highs in late April, the escalation of the US-Sino trade dispute has pushed many global equity markets in the red during the month of May.
While the deleveraging of G-7 stocks was relatively centralized just after the latest increase in US tariffs, the recent inclusion of the Chinese Telecom giant Huawei to the blacklist has increased the scope of the market’s selloff.
Economic Events Outlook
USD – Prelim GDP q/q – 12:30 GMT
Today, the spotlight will be on the US Preliminary GDP growth in the first quarter. The preliminary GDP had shown that the US economy grew by 3.2% rate vs. 3.6% forecast in Q1. For now, economists are predicting a small downward correction to 3.1% in the second print.
Despite the slightly lower downside revisions, the data is unlikely to influence the markets unless there is a substantial deviation from the forecasts.
GOLD Tests Double Bottom – Can GDP Figures Trigger a Breakout?
Gold prices inched lower to trade at 1,277, moving away from a one-week high hit in the previous session. The bearish trend was triggered after the US dollar rebounded amid the European Union parliamentary election outcomes and seething Sino-US trade tensions.
Looks like the traders are puzzled whether to go long or short on stocks and long or short on bonds. So, they are siding with the precious metals. We have also seen a decline in the US stock markets for the past couple of days, but gold isn’t moving much over this as the world’s second-biggest gold consumer China is in trouble.
Gold is consolidating near 1,277 area with an upper range of 1,286 and lower range of 1,271 today. The Moving Averages have acted as resistance, so there’s a green light for a bearish trend.
The US GDP may have a substantial impact on gold prices. A GDP figure above 3.5% may lead to gold prices towards 1,271 today. Otherwise, a lower number may trigger buying above 1,277 until 1,283 and 1,287.
Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Levels
Key Trading Level: 1280.62
Gold – XAU/USD – Trade Plan
On the bearish breakout of 1,277, we may find the closest support at 1,271 as a potential bearish target. The following pullback from this level could lead to another bullish price movement towards 1,277 and 1,283.