Forex Signals Brief for June 12: US CPI in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Much of the attention today will be on the state of inflation in the US when we get the release of CPI.
Inflation, or lack of it, has been a key issue among central bankers all around the world. Currently, in the US, CPI is projected to be coming in at 1.9% with core CPI at 2.1%. Regardless of the result, these numbers are still at the low end of what the Fed might like.
If we do in fact get a poor result today, that will only add to the dove’s case for interest rate cuts in July. At the moment, the probability of a July rate cut is sitting at around the 80% mark. So irrespective of the result today, it looks like the FOMC will be cutting rates.
Clearly, the US Dollar will be a focus today along with GOLD which has been steadily pushing higher on a longer-term time frame.
Elsewhere those following the EUR/USD should look out for the ECB President Mario Draghi, to see if he can give any further insights to the state of monetary policy in Europe when he speaks today.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with 3 wins from 5 signals, with Gold and the GBP/USD the two main trades.
Oil – Pending Signal
WTI has been on a sharp downtrend recently after what had previously been a very strong start to the year. Fears of a supply glut in 2020 are weighing on price and the current shortages are being ignored completely. Price is looking to test $50 and we are hunting a short entry here.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD, has managed to find some buying recently, despite what the fundamentals might suggest. This is in part due to the falling USD. We are short here and are risking off the highs at 1.1350.
BTC is back testing the $8,000 level and has seen some buying come in during the early Asian hours.
As yet price has not really been able to hold the $8,000 mark after numerous attempts and at the same time hasn’t been able to break the $7,500 level to the downside.
Bitcoin has a tendency to fall into these holding patterns and the best play I’ve found is to simply wait for the breakout and go with the momentum.