USD is Weak

USD Index Falters To Kick Off FED-Week

Posted Monday, June 17, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

After a strong Friday session, the USD Index is on the retreat to open FED week. Rates are beneath the 97.000 handle for September USD Index futures as traders limit exposure to the Greenback. At this point, it is all about how Jerome Powell and the FOMC plan to address an expected round of quantitative easing.

September USD Index Futures On The Bear

On the daily chart, September USD Index futures are in a noncommittal technical area, near the 97.000 level. This will likely remain the case until Wednesday’s FED Interest Rate Announcements.

September USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
September USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

Here are two levels to watch as the week wears on:

  • Resistance(1): Daily SMA, 97.130
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 96.725

Overview: The CME FEDWatch Index is currently assigning a 79.2% chance of the Federal Funds Rate being held firm at 2.25-2.50% on Wednesday. However, last month at this time a rate move was nearly unthinkable, with only a 10% chance of it becoming a reality. Since then, rate-cut mania has swept through the markets as traders debate the prospects of a coming recession.

Last week was a good one for the USD. Rallies vs the majors developed as investors relaxed fears over the U.S./China trade war and slowing global economic growth. For the time being, these gains are being given back in anticipation of an overtly dovish FED.

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