Daily Brief, June 27 – Economic Events Outlook – US Final GDP Eyed
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Good morning, fellas.
It’s all about Greenback today as the US economy will be releasing the Final GDP along with German Prelim CPI m/m. Besides, the recent price action in the stock markets, dollar, and gold are likely to help us capture some excellent trades today. Take a look.
Watchlist – Key Economic Events
EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m
Destatis is due to release of the figure during the European session. German is one of the major business hubs in the Eurozone, and its economic events do play a functional role in Euro valuation. Economists are expecting no surprise as Prelim CPI is forecast to be 0.2% from 0.2% beforehand.
Lately, the German CPI is deviating a lot, driving surprising moves in the market.
EUR – Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Likewise, the Spanish CPI is due at 7:00 GMT, and it’s expected to rise by 0.8% vs. 0.8% beforehand. By the way, Spanish Flash CPI was up 1.2% in the previous month. For sure, this month’s figure supports the ECB dovish policy tone and the Euro may trade under pressure today.
The higher level of inflation will give a boost to Euro, while a drop in CPI will place more pressure on ECB President Draghi to keep the monetary policy accommodative. As we all know, the accommodative policy weakens the Euro.
USD – Final GDP q/q
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to publish the figure at 12:30 GMT. Lately, the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.2% in Q1 2019. Although it was slower than before, it didn’t come as a surprise. The final variant of GDP growth is expected to print 3.1% vs. 2.2% beforehand.
Less than expected economic growth is likely to pressure the Fed to keep the rates on hold while placing bearish pressure on the Greenback.
USD – Unemployment Claims
At 12:30 GMT, the weekly jobless claims will be in focus. This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.
Lately, the market has been showing a neutral reaction to this release due to the absence of deviation in data. Even today, economists are expecting a slight jump in jobless claims from 220K to 216K. A higher number is considered bad for the currency.