Monday marks the first day of July and the official beginning to the trading year’s second half. Thus far, 2019 has brought trade wars, bullish U.S. indices, Brexit chaos, and a 180-degree shift in FED policy. For the EUR/USD, the action has been intense.

In addition to next week being the first of the new month, the early-week economic calendar will be active. Aside from this weekend’s G-20 Summit, China will weigh in with its Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) Sunday evening. Monday brings the E.U. M3 Money Supply (May) and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (June). Given these fundamentals, July 1st is likely to be an active day on the forex for both the USD and EUR.

Fibonacci Support Is In View For The EUR/USD

Following the bull run of June 19-21, this week has brought much tighter trading conditions to the EUR/USD. Rates have entered consolidation in the neighborhood of 1.1375 and appear to be in no hurry to leave.

Here are the key levels to watch going into next week’s action:

• Resistance(1): Swing High, 1.1412
• Support(2): 38% Current Wave Retracement, 1.1323

Bottom Line: With a bit of luck, July 1 will bring a retracement to the EUR/USD and set up a buying opportunity. As long as the Swing High (1.1412) remains this market’s periodic top, I will have buy orders queued up from 1.1329. With an initial stop loss at 1.1294, this trade produces 35 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

This weekend, it will be a good idea to keep an eye on the news out of the G-20 ahead of Monday’s trade. Rumour has it that a U.S./China trade war truce is in the works; if such a thing comes to pass, be ready for big volatility on next week’s forex open.