It has been a tight three-session tilt for the EUR/USD, as price has been held in check between 1.1300 and 1.1250. Traders do not appear to be in any hurry to commit one way or the other on the Eurodollar. However, given Germany’s ZEW Survey (July) due out during the overnight and Tuesday’s U.S. Retail Sales release, the EUR/USD may put in a move by Tuesday afternoon.

A bit earlier, two short-term U.S. Treasuries auctions were held. Yields fell, reversing the recent bullish trend and a modest uptick in rates. The 3-Month T-Bill came in at 2.115%, while the 6-Month T-Bill fell to 2.010% from 2.075%. No doubt, today’s action in the debt markets is in anticipation of near-term rate cuts and FED quantitative easing.

EUR/USD: Technical Outlook

In a Live Market Update from last week, I issued a short trade recommendation from 1.1294 in the EUR/USD. The entry was a near miss, as sellers stepped in with conviction 10 pips ahead of the limit order.

Bottom Line: As you can see from the chart above, daily topside resistance is proving valid in this market. Rates have reversed off session highs and are poised to close in the red. If we see a negative settlement today, the Swing Low at 1.1193 may come into play as the EUR/USD readjusts following last week’s FED-driven news cycle.

To capitalize on the consolidating EUR/USD, I will have buy orders in queue from 1.1209 until elected. With an initial stop at 1.1184, this trade produces 25 pips using a standard 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.