Forex Signals Brief for July 16: UK Employment in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Today all the attention early on will be out of the UK as we get a clearer insight into the state of the economy with the employment report.
In reality, the jobs situation in the UK has not been too bad. The expectation is for the unemployment rate is to remain steady at 3.8%, with wages pushing up YoY by 3.5%. While the overall number of people without work is looking like it will fall to 18.9K down on the prior month which was 23.2K.
While the employment situation is relatively good, there is still an air of expectation that the BOE will cut rates. Governor Carney recently stated that global trade tensions could very well be more persistent than many expect, which would weigh on the global economy. As it turns out, we will also hear from Carney later today, so keep a close eye on the GBP/USD as it is in-play. At the same time, the EUR/USD will be waiting on ZEW economic sentiment for both Germany and the Eurozone.
In the US session, all the attention will be on retail sales data. The broader equity markets continue to trade at record highs, lead by the SPX. However, it is the USD that is really of interest. A poor showing from the retail sales data will likely see the USD come under further pressure, although we would have to think all the potential rates cuts are pretty well priced in now.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with 3 wins from 3 signals with GOLD helping us to a positive start for the week.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD was a touch weaker yesterday as the USD has regained a little bit of ground. As mentioned there is some data around today, so hopefully that can push this signal our way.
AUD/USD – Pending Signal
The AUD/USD has been quite strong over the last week thanks predominantly to the weak USD. 0.7050 is shaping up as key resistance. If it can break above that point we might be in for a spike higher, but we will need to watch that level with interest in the days ahead.
BTC has fallen away in the last few sessions but for now it has held the all-important $10,000 level. As mentioned yesterday, the US Government is going to take a very long hard look at Facebook’s Libra and the result of the enquiry will tell a huge story in regards to the future of the industry.
After President Trump came out and whacked it on Twitter, things aren’t looking all that good for Bitcoin and co. at the moment.
If Libra can survive, that might just be one of the biggest catalysts we’ve seen for the entire sector. At the same time, the US Government could just as easily kill it off. I’ll be sitting on the sidelines and waiting to hear more from the U.S. government hearings on Facebook’s Libra on July 16 and 17.