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WTI Crude Ticks Higher Ahead Of Inventories

Much like the other commodity and currency products today, September WTI crude oil futures are putting in a modest session. Prices are in rotation just above $57.00, having posted a 59 tick daily range near the halfway point of the U.S. session. For now, WTI’s price continues to consolidate at the upper end of last week’s range.

While things are quiet now on the oil front, action is soon to pick up. This afternoon marks the release of the API crude oil stocks numbers and the beginning of the weekly inventory cycle. Here is a quick look at expectations:

Event                                       Projected    Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks                   NA           -10.961M    

EIA Crude Oil Stocks               -1.818M     -10.835M

Last week brought a tremendous draw on supply, with both the API and EIA stocks falling by more than 10 million barrels. However, WTI didn’t do a whole lot ― prices chopped sideways near $56.00. 

Be on the lookout for another exceptionally weak inventories cycle. U.S. production has been cut dramatically over the past two months and the summer demand season is in full swing. Perhaps another significant lag in supply will drive WTI to a test of $60.00.

WTI Crude Oil Slow Ahead Of The FED

It is becoming redundant, but the action in WTI is light, just as we are seeing in the other markets. For now, all eyes are on the FED, with energy traders being no exception.

September WTI Crude Oil (CL), Daily Chart
September WTI Crude Oil (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch for September WTI:

  • Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, $57.22
  • Resistance(2): Daily SMA, $58.32
  • Support(1): 62% Macro Wave Retracement, $54.77

Overview: At this point, it may be a stretch to expect a directional move in WTI ahead of the Wednesday FED announcements. But, price is hanging tough near topside resistance. If this market trades above $ 57.22, a run to $58.00 is not out of the question going into tomorrow’s U.S. session.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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