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Daily Brief, Aug 7: Market Swings on RBNZ Rate, What’s Next on the Calendar?

During the Asian session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand banged the market with a 0.50% rate cut. The Reserve Bank has presented a tremendous surprise by cutting the Official Cash Rate to 1.00% from 1.5% and states that the lower rate was required for it to continue to satisfy its employment and inflation objectives.

Indeed, the investors were widely expecting a rate cut but not by as much as was delivered. In the history of the OCR, the only times the OCR has been cut by 50bps or more have been after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and after the Christchurch earthquake.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events

Today, the only major economic event was the RBNZ rate decision which is already out. For now, we have a speech from FOMC member Evans, EIA crude oil inventories and RBA Assist Governor Bullock’s speech on the cards. Let’s take a look.

USD – FOMC Member Evans Speaks – 13:30 GMT

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is due to speak at a media breakfast event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. Audience questions are expected, which typically drives volatility over unexpected responses by FOMC members.

USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT

The EIA inventory report comes out one day after the API report and these usually share a positive correlation. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a crude oil inventory draw of 3.4 million barrels for the week ending Aug 1, compared to analyst expectations of a 2.848-million barrel draw.

The stockpiles’ draw this week compares to last week’s large draw of 6.024 million barrels, bringing the net inventory moves for the year into net draw territory, according to API data. A day later, the EIA confirmed an inventory drawdown of 8.5 million barrels.

During the US session, traders will be following the EIA report which is also due to report a draw of -2.9M vs. -8.5M barrels. However, this draw isn’t as big as the previous one and it may not drive a bullish trend in crude oil.

Well, it looks like bulls are hesitating to store the oil inventories over the escalation of the US-China trade war.

USD – Consumer Credit m/m – 19:00 GMT

The figure is released by the Federal Reserve and typically shows a change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires installment payments.

It’s correlated with consumer spending and confidence – rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

As per analysts’ forecast, consumer credit may slip to 16.4B vs. 17.1B today. The dollar may have a muted impact as investors are still pricing in the worse than expected NFP and Fed rate cut decision.

AUD – RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks – 21:30 GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock is due to speak at the Toowoomba Chamber of Commerce Business Breakfast, in Queensland.

He’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members – who decide where to set the nation’s key interest rates – on matters relating to economics, and his public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts.

Let’s see what he has to say, especially about the interest rate and monetary policy decision, after seeing the 50 base point rate cut from RBNZ. Check FX Leaders economic calendar for the live coverage of these major events.

Good luck!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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