The RBA Leaves the Cash Rate Unchanged at 1.0%

Rowan Crosby•Tuesday, September 3, 2019•1 min read

As expected the RBA has left the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% at its monthly meeting.

Looking at the statement it doesn’t look like there are many new developments. The main comments that I saw were much the same as the last month.

“It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target.”

So while the outlook is dovish, it doesn’t appear that there is any urgency to cut rates at the next meeting. That would mean there is a bit of upside risk today as the market really has been pricing that in.

The AUD/USD has bounced a touch on the news but is still red on the session. Importantly, it is back above the 0.6700 level and that means the buyers are present and have been saving it. So that really remains the line in the sand for me today.

While retail sales were poor, we did get a positive current account surplus. The first since 1975. So things aren’t all doom and gloom in Australia. Certainly in contrast to what the mainstream media might have you believe.

So given that there has not been a big change or a big response from the Aussie, I think we watch this 0.6700 level and key off that. If price can hold it, then we wait and see what GDP brings later in the week. If it cracks it to the downside then the bears remain in control.

Either way, a bit of a non-event in my opinion, but that’s not a bad thing. Let’s look to Oct/Nov to see if the RBA remain long-term dovish.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Rowan Crosby

Asia-Pacific Analyst

Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.