Forex Signals Brief for Sep 5: A First Look at US Jobs
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Markets have been very active over the last 24 hours and we’ve started to see some big moves in a few of the majors as well as stocks.
Yesterday, it was the USD/CAD and the GBP/USD who were responding to some fundamentals by way of the BOC and the UK Parliament and Brexit worries.
Today, we get the first look at what could be in store for tomorrow’s US jobs number, with the unofficial ADP release. This is usually out on the Wednesday, but was pushed back because of the Labor Day long weekend.
The expectation is for an 148K increase in jobs. The employment situation in the US has been one of the shining lights of the US economy. While the FOMC is hastily making plans to cut rates even further this month, the jobs market just keeps on getting better. Which is a bit of a fundamental disconnect in reality.
As such, there is some downside risk here, given that this area has been so strong. The SPX continues to press towards the highs even with all the worries in the world at the moment. So it is worth being ready should we see a soft report today.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with only one signal in GOLD yesterday, in what was a quiet one in an otherwise busy and successful week.
EUR/JPY – Pending Signal
The EUR/JPY has been pushing lower, before seeing a sharp rebound. Often when we get short-sharp extended moves into a key level, price bounces. Hence we are looking for a potential short here.
USD/CAD – Pending Signal
The USD/CAD fell away sharply on both fronts. The USD significantly retraced its recent gains, while the BOC wasn’t as dovish as many had hoped. There is a strong chance of a bounce coming so we are on the lookout for that opportunity as long as price holds support.
BTC has once again been active in the last 24-hours, but again nothing has really changed on a longer-term level.
Price failed to breakout above our trendline and as such is still relatively range bound. Despite the bulls trying, there is even an argument that we have made a double top at $10,800.
So this next move will really tell us the story that we are looking for. If price tries to push higher and fails again, making a lower high, then the bears are still holding us down.
Conversely, if price holds the $10,400 level, then there is a good chance that we test those highs. Either way we are coiling very hard at the moment and my plan is still to go in the direction of the break out.