Forex Signals Brief for Sep 10: UK Employment Ahead
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
It looks like there might be some signs of life in the UK economy, despite all the worries that Brexit continues to provide for lawmakers.
Yesterday, there were positive signs with GDP coming in above expectations, albeit flat for the quarter.
The one area that has been reasonably sound, continues to be employment and wage growth. As it stands the unemployment rate of 3.9%, looks to remain steady at a near on 44-year low. While jobs growth for the quarter is expected to be down on the prior but still a healthy 53K.
At the same time, wage growth is tracking along OK and importantly is outpacing inflation. Which cannot be said for many other countries at this point in time.
All this tied in with the fact that the UK Parliament will be suspended again, makes for a tricky time for GBP/USD traders as we can’t really get any clear direction.
Recent sessions have seen a sharp bounce in the Pound and more good news on the wage front today, could well see some more bullish follow-through.
Elsewhere, data remains on the thin side, but we will wait on JOLT job openings in the US session.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team started the week with 2 wins from 2 signals with the safe-havens proving to be profitable opportunities for the team.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD will be the pair to watch this week as we head into one of the most explosive ECB meetings in recent memory. There is broad expectation of a massive stimulus program and should it meet the markets expectations, that could see a sharp fall in the Euro. We are short, but this signal will likely be closed out prior.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD has fallen through the key $1500 level and in Asian trade is moving away from that point with a bit of speed. It would be on light volume this time of the day, so there are hopes of a bounce for the gold bugs. But this will be a trade to watch, given how important the $1500 level has been to date.
BTC really hasn’t changed pace in the last week or so with a tight range developing between the $11,000 resistance level and $10,000 support.
My opinion has been that we are on the verge of a break out as I have been saying for a few sessions now. Overall, I believe the technicals and fundamentals are short-term bullish.
The line in the sand for a while now remains the $10,000 level. Price has been roughly holding that point and any push lower, immediately gets met with buyers. We’ve really only seen lows of $9,500 or thereabouts.
So to me, the odds are still in favour of the upside breakout. That said, my bias is in fact, that a breakout will happen and push hard and fast. Hence, there is value in waiting for that to happen, rather than preempting a move just yet.