Crude oil consumption

WTI Crude Reverses Off Early Highs

Posted Tuesday, September 10, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

It has been a whipsaw session for WTI crude oil, with prices reversing off intraday highs. At press time (about 1:30 PM EST), October WTI futures are in rotation near the $58.00 handle. Will the energy bulls make it five straight winning days for WTI?

Once again, Tuesday is upon us, and with it the weekly inventory cycle. Later today, the API Crude Oil Stocks report is scheduled for release. The API came in at a positive 0.401 million last week, showing a strong week-over-week increase in supply. Following the API, Wednesday morning will bring the EIA Crude Oil Stocks number. Last week the EIA reported a -4.771 million barrel draw, significantly negative but an improvement from previous levels. 

This week’s stats are expected to come in negative, as shown by the -2.6M barrel EIA consensus projection. While this is in line with fall seasonality, another surprise could be in store. If inventories come in better than expected, bearish pressure may creep back into the WTI crude market.

WTI Crude Oil Drives Toward $60.00

Monday brought a strong bullish breakout above August’s highs for October WTI crude. The rally was extended earlier today but has since resided. For the time being, this market is consolidating near $57.50-75.

October WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
October WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch for the near future:

  • 2-Way Catalyst: August High, $58.05
  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement. $56.50

Bottom Line: Currently, a daily bullish bias is warranted for WTI crude oil. Values are up more than $5 in under a week, suggesting that crude oil bulls are making a final summertime push toward $60.00.

As long as today’s high holds as the intermediate-term top of this market, I will have buy orders queued up from $56.61 in October WTI crude oil. With an initial stop at $56.24, this trade produces 37 ticks on a 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

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