Key Levels For Asian Trade: Trump Delays Tariffs
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Asian markets have been relatively subdued this week, at least by their recent standards. This morning we are starting to see some risk-on a touch, after Trump announced the delay of tariffs by two weeks. Now this won’t be enough to change anything, but sentiment is positive.
Both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD have seen small ranges lately, but in reality, that goes for the broader market as well. There is no major data out today in Asia and there hasn’t been much out of note this week.
All the focus today is really on the ECB and that might be the thing that sets the tone for now.
Price just hasn’t been able to push above the 0.6875 level and clearly there are sellers at 0.6900. The fact that price couldn’t even push as high as the round number level, suggests the bears are there for the time being.
If price drops out the bottom and takes back 0.6850, then we should get some extended downside. This is a little consolidation pattern that we are in and the two levels mentioned are the ones to watch. We had a false breakout over night to the upside and it simply couldn’t hold. Given the sentiment this morning, we could see a bit of an upside break, but keep looking for a break of those two key levels.
Similar to the Aussie, the Kiwi has seen a bit of buying recently, before falling into this consolidation pattern. Price couldn’t actually trade into 0.6450 at all and that type of price action, where we make lower highs on a short-term chart, is a bearish one.
In fact, I like the look of a short here more so than with the Aussie. A break of 0.6400 could be a nice short trade here. The fact, price hasn’t rebounded strongly this morning might suggest there is still underlying weakness.
The USD/JPY continues to be strong at the moment as risk gets taken off the table. The US-China trade wars have died back off and the news cycle is finished – for now. So the JPY is falling while the USD remains relatively bid.
Price sliced through 107.00 easily and I am expecting a test of the 108.00 level. There is a fair bit of consolidation here at 108.00 so I would not expect price to break through as easily and might even be a bit of a stopping point.