Forex Signals Brief for Oct 2: First Look at US Jobs
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Given that it is the start of the month, much of the anticipation this week will center around the US employment report on Friday.
In the lead up to the official numbers, we get the private ADP report which is due out today. The expectation is for 140K new jobs to have been created last month, which is down on the prior.
Given the FOMC, gave us what was called a ‘hawkish cut’, there will be plenty of focus on this number and what it could mean for Friday. Jerome Powell has been hanging his hat on the fact that the jobs situation in the US has been strong. So a weak report, could mean he won’t be able to turn back to a hawkish bias, which is clearly what he would prefer. That could pressure the Greenback which was already soft yesterday.
Earlier in the European session, we will also get construction PMI from the UK which will be important for the GBP/USD.
While later in the US session, WTI oil inventories will be the big mover for that market.
Markets are really responding to data this week as we saw yesterday, with a very soft ISM release that hit the USD hard. So the jobs report is looking like it will be a huge one come Friday.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team started the new month with 2 wins from 2 signals to get started on the front foot.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD was able to retrace some of those month-end losses and gave us a good opportunity yesterday. Again we will be watching for further signs of a bounce back towards the key $1500 level.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD is in a longer-term downtrend and we have been looking to short when the opportunity presents itself. A drop in the USD hurt us a bit here, but we are hoping the longer-term trend reestablishes itself quickly.
BTC has so far been holding up against the $8,000 level and really trying to test that upside resistance level around the $8,400-500 area.
There were some headlines out today that the Visa and Mastercard are looking to re-think their involvement with Facebook’s Libra. Clearly this is another negative for Libra and the entire sector, but so far it hasn’t weighed on markets.
There does look like there is considerable buying interest coming into BTC at these current levels, above $8,000, so if that level drops, then we should have a nice short.
The price action is messy to the upside, so it might be a case and waiting and seeing what plays out. Although $8,000 is also a risk level you could use if you looked to go long here.