Brexit, Trade Talks Rule U.S. Session
Shain Vernier • 2 min read
Geopolitical events have ruled the roost today on the forex. Over the past four hours, we have seen headlines on both the Brexit and U.S./China trade war fronts. The results have been breakout rallies in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Conversely, safe-havens, led by gold, have experienced bearish pressure.
U.S./China Negotiations, Brexit Bring Action To The Markets
On the equities front, the U.S. indices have pared early gains ahead of late-day trade. This runs a bit counterintuitive to Trump’s Twitter feed, which has put forth the possibility of a Friday trade war breakthrough:
“Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at the White House.”
For the time being, traders are taking a modestly favorable view of Trump’s tweet on the U.S./China dialogue. However, even a partial deal will send stocks rapidly north and safe-havens down. Perhaps the gold bugs are getting out in front of a potential blockbuster Friday session.
A few hours ago, headlines surrounding a backstop compromise between the U.K. and Ireland began to hit newswires. Stemming from a U.K./Irish meeting in North West England, reports are coming in that a Brexit deal may be in the offing. A joint statement was posted on Twitter from P.M. Johnson and Irish head Varadkar:
“The P.M. (Johnson) and Taoiseach (Varadkar) have had a detailed and constructive discussion. Both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody’s best interest. They agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal.”
Forex traders have run with this statement, sending the GBP/USD dramatically north.
Overview: In reality, we will likely see a resolution come to both Brexit and the U.S./China trade war sooner rather than later. As we move deeper into October, the ongoing negotiations in each arena are going to play key roles in both stock index and currency valuations.