August’s High In View For USD/JPY
Shain Vernier • 1 min read
The Greenback is putting together a solid session vs the safe-havens as sentiment on Wall Street is positive. “Risk-on” is once again the order of the day, with gold, the Swiss franc, and Japanse yen fading vs the USD. At press time (about 12:00 PM EST), the USD/JPY is posting multi-month highs above 108.50.
During the U.S. overnight session, several Japanese metrics were released to the public. Here is a quick look at the data set:
Event Actual Projected Previous
Capacity Utilization (August) -2.9% -0.2% 1.1%
Industrial Production (MoM, August) -1.2% -1.2% -1.2%
Industrial Production (YoY, August) -4.7% -4.7% -4.7%
The key figure in this group is the yearly lagging Industrial Production figure. While the number did come in on schedule, the overall performance is dismal. Moving into an expected global economic downturn, it is difficult to see any hawkish policies coming to fruition from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Today’s result has been a rally in the USD/JPY, as the Greenback appears to be the dog with the least fleas.
August Highs In View For The USD/JPY
October has been a big month for USD/JPY bulls, with rates moving higher by 75+ pips after reversing initial bearish action. Now, it looks like a test of August’s High at 109.31 may be in the cards for the near future.
Bottom Line: In the event the USD/JPY continues to show strength, a shorting opportunity will set up from just beneath August’s high. Until elected, I will have sell orders in queue from 109.22. With an initial stop at 109.57, this trade produces 25 pips on a sub-1:1 risk vs reward management plan.