
British Private Sector to Continue Contracting Over Brexit Uncertainties
A recent survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reveals that business activity among private companies in Britain is expected to contract by 17% in the three months till January 2020. This would be the steepest decline in economic output seen in the British private sector in eight years.
In the three months leading up to October, economic output of Britain’s private sector declined by 11%, which was a sharper decline than that witnessed during the preceding quarter. The latest data is the 12th consecutive quarter when output has failed to grow, and either stagnating or declining instead.
Manufacturing in Britain is on the decline as are business volumes in the services sector. Meanwhile, retail sales and business are also witnessing a slowdown, compounding the woes of the private sector overall. According to deputy chief economist at CBI, Anna Leach, “The drops across the manufacturing, retail and dominant services sector, paired with the hugely damaging effect of Brexit uncertainty, are ingredients for a perfect storm for British firms.”
In the event of a smooth Brexit with a deal in place, the CBI anticipates a modest improvement in economic growth. However, longer term economic growth depends on the finer details on the deal finalized. Economic growth in the UK has been slowing down since the Brexit referendum in 2016, falling from 2.0% to around 1.2% expected in 2019.