Forex Signals Brief for Nov 14: Is Germany on the Brink of Recession?
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Markets have a busy day ahead with a host of economic data points due for release, however, there is none more interesting than German GDP.
The powerful German economy is ironically one that sits on the verge of recession. The quarterly GDP change is looking at being -0.1%. The definition of a recession is two periods of negative economic growth, so that is certainly not a great sign.
There are also worries around the state of employment in the country, with the unemployment rate ticking higher. That said, the contracting GDP numbers are set to be relatively short-lived with a bounce coming in 2020, by all accounts.
Nevertheless, it makes for good media fodder and will likely weigh on the EUR/USD today. There are also a host of Eurozone numbers out today, with the main ones being employment and GDP also. This can lead to choppy price action, but we need to focus on the mains ones listed already.
At the same time, we also get retail sales for the UK which will impact the GBP/USD.
While when we head to the US session, we are in for day-2 of Jerome Powell’s trip to Washington, who was relatively bullish yesterday.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with 1 win from 3 signals in another relatively quiet session, although we do have a number of pending signals.
GBP/USD – Pending Signal
The GBP/USD is holding steady above 1.2800 and it looks like there is some real consolidation going on ahead of the UK elections. The big data of recent weeks hasn’t been rocking the boat too much and we continue to hunt a long signal.
USD/CAD – Active Signal
The USD/CAD has bounced of recent weeks, really off that 1.3050 level. We are long here on the pullback, looking for the bounce to continue.
BTC has had little to report on over the last few trading sessions.
As price continues to consolidate under the $9,000 level, our bias to the short side only grows.
I am still waiting here for that breakdown to $8,000. At this stage another pop to $9,000 and fail would be a potential short entry.
Even since the big run to $10,000, price has continued to make lower highs and as yet, no bounce has really been able to hold.