After yesterday’s RBA minutes, it appeared that the Aussie was certain to tumble. But as the news filtered through markets, the AUD in-fact held up quite strongly.

The minutes suggested the RBA, ‘strongly considered’ a rate cut at its November meeting, but decided to leave rates unchanged at 0.75%. The AUD/USD initially fell, before stabilising and reclaiming the 0.6800 level.

There was a bit of talk around from some RBA watchers that the news wasn’t all that bad, and that helped hold the Aussie up.

As it stands, the odds of a rate cut in February do appear to be on the rise, but we really can’t be too sure just yet.

As the RBA themselves have said, they are really in a ‘wait and see’, type of situation. And most of that is focused on the jobless rate. If that can rebound in the next few months, then that rate cut will likely not be going ahead.

So for now, the Aussie is holding up and the 0.6800 level is becoming important. I said yesterday if that level breaks and holds then the door is open to a big move down. Clearly that wasn’t the case and price did make a bit of a higher low in the process.

Price also broke out of the run of lower highs, so that in itself is a bullish indicator.

So that all might be telling us that the bearish news is priced in at the moment. I wouldn’t be getting too bullish myself unless price can break 0.6850. That has been a bit of a stopping point so far.

To the downside, we need to see a break of 0.6800 to really get the ball rolling. So just like the RBA at the moment, the Aussie might be in a bit of a holding pattern for now. So we will watch those two key levels for now and probably look to go with the momentum.