Forex Signals Brief for Nov 29: European CPI in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
As US traders enjoy Thanksgiving, markets have been somewhat subdued. Despite that, there will still be some key data points on Friday in Europe that will be well worth watching.
The main number of interest for us today, will be Eurozone CPI. Soft CPI has been plaguing Europe since the GFC and despite Mario Draghi’s best efforts and trillions of dollars in QE, the meter has barley been nudged in the right direction.
As it stands inflation is set for a lacklustre reading of 0.9%, well off the 2-3% the ECB would be ideally looking to achieve. Clearly, Draghi did not achieve his goals while at the helm and responsibility now falls to Christine Lagarde to try and steer the ship.
At the same time, we will also get a look at German employment. The German economy is still not quite the powerhouse it once was and that in and of itself is a reason for the soft inflation figures. In a way, today’s jobs number is really a leading indicator of inflation so it will be one to watch with interest.
Obviously, the EUR/USD will be the main trade today, but we still must expect lower volume with a high likelihood of little US involvement, even though technically there are only reduced trading hours on Friday.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with one win from the one signal in WTI.
EUR/CHF – Active Signal
The EUR/CHF has been holding quite strongly under resistance which is very clear on the chart. As such, we are short looking for that level to hold and a break lower.
EUR/JPY – Active Signal
We are finally in a EUR/JPY long position after price kept on holding up strongly. We are aiming for price to make another test of resistance at 121.00.
BTC has been relatively quiet over the last 24 hours which to be expected without US traders really being present. The $7,600 level is shaping up as an important one as we mentioned yesterday, thanks to the fact that there are multiple resistance points all converging.
We can clearly see the downtrend line and longer-term resistance plus the fact that there is $8,000 above.
So for now, we wait with a short bias and I will be looking for selling pressure. But given it’s a clear inflection point, I would expect plenty of shorts in this area so if price does break higher, there will be a quick short squeeze.