The week ahead looks like it is going to be a big one for the Aussie dollar with a couple of key data points ahead.

The start of the month means that it is time again for the RBA to meet. Fresh off three rate cuts this year, the expectation for any change in December remains small. In fact, futures markets are suggesting there is only a 7.8 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut.

The odds are higher in February, which many now expect could be the next real opportunity for the RBA to continue with their easing. There’s now a 57 per cent chance of a rate cut to 0.5 per cent at the February meeting.

Clearly, more will be revealed this Tuesday, but interestingly there is another key data point looming on Wednesday with GDP.

It appears there will be 0.5 per cent GDP growth for the three months to September according to analysts, which was in line with the June quarter.

That’s pointing to an annual growth rate of 1.6%, which is up on the prior, but still likely to come in below the RBA’s target of 2.3% by years end.

At this stage, low interest rates appear to only be boosting house prices and other assets across the country and as yet, the rest of the economy hasn’t quite caught up.

So that is a worry for the RBA and it will be interesting to read the accompanying statement to see what they are thinking.

As it stands the AUD/USD is still soft and holding comfortably below 0.6800. I really feel it is unlikely at this stage to see much of a rebound above that level by years end. Price looks to be getting walked down and to me, only a sharp change in either the RBA statement or a big GDP beat could turn it around this week.