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AUD/USD Enters Overbought Region Amid Hawkish RBA – Get Ready for Retracement

Posted Tuesday, December 3, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The AUD/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and is seen near the 0.6830. AUD/USD extends the previous run-up because RBA avoided providing any clear hints to unconventional monetary policy tools.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) matched broad market agreement by announcing no change to its benchmark interest rate of 0.75%. However, details from the rate statement suggest the recent rate cuts have boosted employment and income growth.

It should be noted that China plans to ban all the diplomatic passport-holders from Xinjiang as per the Global Times mainly due to the United States’ interference in Hong Kong. In addition, the US keeps its firm stand against the European Union (EU) automakers even as it offers additional troubles to Argentina and Brazil while reviving steel and aluminum tariffs.

Moreover, US President Donald Trump recently blamed the US Federal Reserve’s easy money policy and strong US dollar (USD). On the other hand, the market’s risk tone stays inactive and the United States ten-year treasury yields fail to extend the previous run-up to 1.82%. Stocks in Asia decline whereas S&P 500 SPX recovers the month-start losses.

Looking ahead, Australia’s 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up for publishing on Wednesday, supported by Friday US employment data, will be the key events for AUD/USD traders. Whereas the Aussie GDP might represent recovery YoY, the US jobs report will likely keep traders guessing.


Technically, AUD/USD has entered the overbought zone to trade at 0.6865. On the 3-hour chart, AUD/USD is likely to exhibit retracement until 23.2% level of around 0.6835, 38.2% Fib level of 0.6820, while resistance stays around 0.6865 today.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 0.6699
S2 0.6752
S1 0.6785
Pivot Point 0.6806
R1 0.6839
R2 0.6859
R3 0.6913

The idea is to capture a quick sell below 0.6860 level until the immediate support level of 0.6820. While for buying, traders can go long above 0.6800 today.

Good luck!

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