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Chinese Yuan to Continue Trading Weak Despite Upcoming Phase One Trade Deal: Reuters Poll

A recent Reuters poll indicates that the weakness in the Chinese yuan is expected to continue into this year despite the upcoming signing of the phase one trade deal as it does not fully resolve trade tensions between the US and China. Over the past year, the Chinese yuan lost around 1.3% of its value against the US dollar.

Recent optimism surrounding the partial trade deal signing have helped the yuan to climb to a five-month high against the greenback, but respondents polled appear cautious that this could be a momentary effect. Unless a more clear and permanent improvement in US-China trade relations emerges, which includes rollback of more tariffs, the yuan is likely to exhibit signs of weakness.

The yuan could lose around 1% of its value to cross the 7 level against the dollar over the coming three months and stay around these levels over the coming year. While the US and China have agreed to sign the phase one trade agreement next week, there is still lack of clarity on how China will increase purchases of US farm products without increasing its low-tariff import quotas on grains this year.

The skepticism surrounding the interim trade agreement and forthcoming negotiations towards the phase two and phase three of the deal are likely to weigh on USD/CNH over the next few months.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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