29,000 Back In View For The DOW

Risk is back in style on Wall Street and investors are piling into stocks. At the halfway point of the U.S. session, the DJIA DOW (+475), S&P 500 SPX (+53), and NASDAQ (+180) are posting steep intraday uptrends. It appears that angst over the coronavirus and the Trump impeachment saga are subsiding.

This evening marks the yearly State of the Union Address to be delivered by President Trump. Below are a few of the topics likely be touched upon:

• Phase 1 U.S./China trade deal, USMCA
• Immigration, border security
• Lowering the cost of health care

Although the commentary on these issues will likely be broad in scope, any verbiage surrounding trade may impact the forex and stock markets. In the past, Trump’s State of the Union Address has brought bearish sentiment to the DOW. In fact, over the past several years, the DJIA has fallen an average of 0.08% the day following Trump’s speech. If this turns out to be the case, we may see the DOW pause its early 2020 bull run in the neighborhood of 29,000.

DOW Rallies, Safe-Havens Plunge

All in all, it has been a strong open to February for the DOW and U.S. stocks. On the other hand, safe-havens have struggled. The big loser has been gold, which is down just over 1.5% on the session. In addition, the Swiss franc is limping vs the Greenback, as shown by a decent rally in the USD/CHF.

Overview: In a Live Market Update from yesterday, I outlined a long trading plan for the USD/CHF. As of yet, the trade hasn’t gone active. However, it may come into play during midweek action. If you missed the recommendation, feel free to check it out here.

Ultimately, the intermediate-term downtrend in the Swissy remains valid. Rates have yet to trade above the 38% Retracement at 0.9770. As long as this level holds as topside resistance, a bearish bias is warranted and a test of January’s Low (0.9613) is likely to develop.