Daily Brief, February 07 – Economic Events Outlook, Nonfarm Payroll in Highlights
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Happy Friday, fellas.
On Friday, the eyes will be on the U.S.NFP figures along with the Canadian Job data, and both are due at the same time. U.S. economy is expected to report slightly better economic figures, which may drive the bullish trend in the USD today. On the other hand, the Canadian labor market is expected to perform a bit lower this month, perhaps due to a drop in oil prices and China Caronovirus issue. Let’s take a look.
EUR – German Trade Balance
At 7:00 (GMT), the Destatis is due to release the trade balance figures for Germany. It’s a difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports.
Germany is one of the business hubs in the Eurozone and contributes to the economic growth of the Eurozone. This is why traders look forward to a jump in German exports. Economists are expecting a less trade surplus of 16.4B billion vs. 18.3B billion in January.
The NFP (Nonfarm employment change) and the unemployment rate, both these economic events, will be closely monitored at 13:30 GMT. After a slow growth rate of 145K jobs, the U.S. economy is expected to add only 163K jobs in January.
Whereas, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. For sure, it’s not something exciting. Thus it may keep the dollar supportive today.
So can we expect the same from NFP today?
On Wednesday, job creation soared dramatically, showing a sign that the U.S. economy is on good momentum. Companies added just 291K new positions during the month. It appears that the greenback may show signs of weakness on the news release (163K forecast) as most investors are expecting a figure over 291K.
Average Hourly Earnings m/m – In addition to the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate, we need to focus on the average hourly earnings as well. In December, the earnings slipped from 0.3% forecast to 0.1%, signaling slacks in the labor market, but economists are optimistic about this month’s report. The figures are expected to jump to 0.3% from 0.1%.
At 13:30 GMT, Statistics Canada will be releasing the Canadian unemployment rate. It’s forecasted to remain unchanged at 5.7%. Whereas, employment change is something in focus. Statistics Canada reported a surge in Employment Change by 35.2 jobs in December, but today, the economists are expected this figure to drop further until 16.3K.
All the best for today, and stay tuned for more updates!