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Daily Brief, Feb 14: Economic Events Outlook – German GDP & US Retail Sales In Focus!  

Happy Friday, traders.

The dollar climbed and global equity markets collapsed on Thursday due to increased coronavirus death toll in China, which has weakened the risk sentiment of investors and has curbed the US and European stocks to a series of record peaks.

On the news front, eyes will be on the German GDP figures, which may help drive some price action in the EUR pairs. Expectations are for no change and, if this happens, the focus will shift to Core retail sales figures which are coming out from the US economy.

EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m

German GDP is considered one of the high impact economic events for the Euro currency as Germany is considered the biggest business hub. In November, the German GDP soared by 0.1%, beating the forecast of -0.1%. Even today, economists are expecting a neutral figure of 0.1%. It may add bearish pressure on the Euro today.

US Retail Sales m/m – 13:30 GMT

It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Economists aren’t expecting any change in this month’s retail sales data as it’s forecast to be 0.3% vs. 0.3% during the previous month.

Considering this, traders are expected to continue trading the dollar with a bearish bias.

USD – Core Retail Sales m/m

Alongside, the core retail sales will also be in focus as it shows a change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. The data is due at 13:30 GMT, and the retail sales are expected to drop to 0.3% vs. 0.7% beforehand.

USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 14:00 GMT
At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment will remain in focus. It’s a survey of about 500 consumers, which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

As per economists’ forecast, the data is expected to drop slightly from 99.8 to 99.5, which means the consumers feel less confident about the US economy, and it may drag the US dollar lower today.

Good luck, traders and stay tuned to FX Leaders’ Economic Calendar for live market updates.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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