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EIA report

WTI Crude Oil Sub-$50.00 Following EIA

Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The downtrend in WTI crude oil is alive and well, with prices falling toward the $49.00 handle. Following this week’s API and EIA Crude Oil Stocks numbers, energy traders have found little reason to bid crude. At this juncture, the global oil complex is tanking as questions over Chinese demand persist.

EIA, API Report Mild Builds In Supply

The weekly inventory cycle is once again in the books. To be honest, the figures have come and gone with little fanfare amid the coronavirus panic. Here is a quick look at this week’s stats:

Event                                            Actual      Projected    Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks                     1.3M             NA               4.2M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks                   0.452M       2.005M        0.414M

With the North American winter months quickly passing, it looks like we may be preparing to transition to spring supply trends. However, the EIA and API are both showing builds in stocks on hand, indicating that U.S. demand isn’t yet on the upswing. Be on the lookout for the crude oil supply dynamic to begin shifting by the middle of March.

WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $50.00

It isn’t an overly sophisticated point, but $50.00 has been a major 12-month support level for April WTI futures. Now, due to the fundamentals facing crude oil, it appears this technical area is ready to be taken out.

April WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Weekly Chart
April WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Weekly Chart

Given the current bearish state of April WTI, there is one support level on my radar:

  • Support(1): December 2018’s Low, $45.92

Bottom Line: In the event that the coronavirus panic drives April WTI lower, a buy from long-term support will come into play. Until elected, I will have buy orders in the queue from $46.26. With an initial stop loss at $45.24, this trade produces 150 ticks on a 1:1 ½ risk vs reward ratio.

If you are holding open forex or futures positions, remember that President Trump is scheduled to speak on the coronavirus outbreak at 6:00 PM EST. Depending upon Trump’s tone, this event has the potential to move markets.

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