US Retail Sales to Improve if Coronavirus is Contained Before Turning Into a Global Pandemic: NRF

Arslan Butt•Thursday, February 27, 2020•1 min read

Latest research by the National Retail Foundation (NRF) indicates that retail sales in the US are expected to increase by anywhere between 3.5% and 4.1% to exceed $3.9 trillion this year, despite the reigning worries about the coronavirus outbreak. With wages increasing at a steady pace and interest rates remaining low, consumer confidence is expected to continue on a strong footing, driving the increase in retail sales and supporting the US economy.

However, the NRF has cautioned that a prolonged shutdown of factories in China on account of the outbreak could dent the growth in US retail sales. For 2019, the NRF had estimated a growth in retail sales by around 3.8% but preliminary readings point to the figure coming in slightly lower at 3.7% instead.

The NRF also expects the retail sector to add around 150k-170k jobs per month this year, slightly lower than the 175k jobs added per month in 2019. However, on the positive side, unemployment is forecast to reduce from 3.6% to 3.5% by the end of 2020.

The receding trade tensions are expected to help give a boost to the overall consumer sentiment this election year. However, the NRF has cautioned that these estimates are based on an assumption that the coronavirus will successfully be contained before it turns into a global pandemic.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.