Forex Signals Brief for Mar 20: Volatility Contracts… For Now
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
US markets closed the day higher than where they opened, which in these market conditions is no small feat.
The SPX still had a wild session, but the big 5-10% moves that we have been seeing eased for the time being. There was still some decent intraday moves and equities finished well off their highs, but at this stage, it is more of a case of stemming the bleeding.
Elsewhere, WTI managed to bounce off the $20 level, while the flight to the safety of cash continues with the Greenback and US Dollar Index seeing a strong bid. At the same time, US jobless claims increased, but it wasn’t the severe spike many had feared.
As a result, the majors have seen big moves, mostly to the downside, particularly in risk assets such as the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD. Both these pairs were targeted by the sellers as the ECB, BOJ, BOE and RBA intervened with packages to help boost the economy in the short term. Unfortunately, this usually comes at the expense of the currency, but we must remember that a lower currency is a boost to exports and the broader economy.
That said, in the current low-interest rate environment, these rate cuts might have a limited impact.
As we roll into the end of the week, the economic data will only be a sideshow. The real focus will be on just how much risk is taken off the table headed into the weekend.
Cases around the globe continue to increase and that is always a reason to move to cash. But as we see reduced liquidity and with markets already -30% off their highs, people might believe they are jumping ship at the exact wrong moment.
There is also a growing chorus suggesting, the coronavirus was simply the perfect reason to sell down what has been a rampaging bull market. Stocks have been moving higher for 11-years and were ripe for a correction.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team have hit eight winners from ten trades this week, as we look for more opportunities to close out the week strongly.
Be sure to follow our live signals as conditions remain excellent for intraday trading.
AUD/USD – Active Signal
The AUD/USD has been facing some extreme selling and has hit lows not seen in decades on the back of the RBA’s QE package and a rate cut. It’s also been getting smashed by the rampaging USD and as yet there has been little relief. We are short here looking for another push lower.
SPX – Watching
The SPX has held up above the 2,400 level once again but I still wouldn’t be confident we have found a bottom. There is still room for another push lower here and whether that happens today or in the coming weeks is anyone’s guess. I remain bullish on stocks, particularly blue-chips in the longer-term.
As we suspected it might BTC looks like it has held the $5,000 level and has now pushed above $6,000.
I wouldn’t really be looking for a long position here, but it appears the bleeding has stopped for now. There is clearly buying at that lower level so that will likely hold up in the short-term.