Today marks the final trading session of March, a historic month in the world of finance. The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the global economy to its core and produced unprecedented volatility. We have seen some of the largest pricing moves of the past decade ― will the action continue into April? In the case of the USD Index, rates have entered rotation within a non-committal technical area.
At this point, it’s anyone’s guess how the markets will respond to the COVID-19 shock over the coming months. However, we are beginning to see signs of normality. The CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) is returning to mean levels, showing a relatively modest reading of 51.50 today. By comparison, the last several weeks have regularly seen values in the mid-80s. Although there is still plenty of action on Wall Street for equities, things appear to be getting back to business as usual.
Let’s take a look at the daily technicals for the USD Index and see which way the Greenback may be headed.
USD Index Enters Rotational Phase
All in all, it’s been a strong month for June USD Index futures. Bidders have entered the market aggressively and treated the Greenback like a safe-haven. However, the dynamic is beginning to shift as rates are back below 100.000.
Here are the key levels to watch in this market for the near future:
- Support(1): Bollinger MP, 99.400
- Support(2): 62% Current Wave, 98.130
- Support(3): Daily SMA, 97.665
Overview: As we move into April, a bullish bias continues to be warranted for the USD Index. Rates remain above the 62% retracement level, which indicates the daily uptrend remains valid. While the strength of the bullish trend has diminished, it is still intact. If we see a surprise figure out of tomorrow’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), then June USD Index futures may be primed for a directional move.