Daily Brief, Apr 30: ECB Monetary Policy Ahead – What to Expect From EUR/USD? 

Posted Thursday, April 30, 2020 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

What’s up, traders.

Eyes will be on the series of GDP figures from the Eurozone and Canada along with the ECB monetary policy meeting. Economists are expecting European GDP to drop due to continued lockdown around the Eurozone area. At the same time, the ECB may not change its policy rate for now; however, the discussion about increasing quantitative easing may help drive the selling trend in the Euro today.

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair is going to end this month on a bearish track mainly because the German data is expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate, while the European Central Bank has fewer chances to sound hawkish. However, the currency pair dropped from the monthly opening rate of 1.1039 to 1.0860, representing a 1% decline.

The reason behind the pair’s monthly bearish bias is the failure of the European nations to agree to a large coronavirus stimulus package and the resulting fears of a continued economic downturn. As of writing, EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0860 consolidating in the range between 1.0852 and 1.0879.

At the data front, German consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, is expected to have declined by 7.3% month-on-month in March. Meanwhile, the labor market data is expected to show the uptick in the jobless rate to 5.2% in April from 5% in March.

ECB Rate Decision – 11:45 GMT
The ECB is struggling to trade amid the turbulence in the financial markets because of the coronavirus crisis. The bank has improved some practices to support banks’ path to its ultra-cheap liquidity. The ECB will also issue current projections for growth and inflation and may decrease some of the data points. Economists are not expecting any rate change decision from the European Central Bank, with rates expected to stay steady at 0.00%.

Moreover, the retail sales could miss expectations and may have registered growth in March, possibly due to panic buying ahead of coronavirus-led lockdown. As a result, the shared currency may not respond to an above-forecast figure. Whereas, if the jobless rate releases below expectations, the EUR currency will likely find some bids.

EUR/USD is trading at 1.0865 level as it’s expected to meet a resistance around 1.0880, which is prolonged by a triple top pattern that can be seen on the 4-hour chart above. We may see an additional buying trend in the pair if it gets to the crossover 1.0885 resistance mark.

The next resistance will command at 1.0935, while bearish crossover of 1.08400 mark can extend selling unto 1.0816 level. Consider adding buying trades over 1.0880 resistance today, and selling under 1.0860. Good luck!

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