Forex Signals Brief for May 14: Will US Jobless Claims Drift Lower?
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
Markets closed the session red yesterday after Fed boss Jerome Powell warned there would be no negative interest rates in the foreseeable future.
It was a grim outlook from Powell, who also said the current situation would be, “significantly worse than any recession since World War II”. He also handballed the problem to the Government, calling for more fiscal stimulus.
It was not the outlook the SPX wanted to hear, which put the key index into the red and down -1.75% on the session. At the same time, the Greenback saw some upside and is back above the 100 level on the US Dollar Index, while GOLD was also higher.
There has certainly been a bit of a risk-off feel creeping in this week, and with little good news in the media, that could continue into the weekend.
The Data Agenda
The one opportunity for markets to show some strength again will likely be on the back of people getting back to work.
One good thing at the moment is that jobless claims in the US are falling. That said, we would anticipate that most people that have lost their jobs have done so already. Hence the reason, jobless claims are on the decline.
However, watching the continuing claims numbers is not pretty with the number jumping up to an expected 25 million. Something that is clearly not sustainable but will hopefully start turning around shortly.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team closed one signal in the red yesterday as our NZD/USD trade fell away on the back of the RBNZ.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD is above the $1700 level and as we can see on the charts is pushing into the top of that flag formation. Could this be the day price breaks out?
SPX – Watching
The SPX and most risk assets have been soft this week. The 2,900 resistance level is still causing some real selling pressure as we can see on the chart.
The infamous BTC halving came and went without much fuss this week, but finally, we are starting to see some movement at the station.
Price retook $9,000 and it appears there is a bid that is eager to buy. Again the test appears to be $10,000, but an attempt at that level will certainly be on the cards this week.