crude oil

July WTI Crude Oil Breaks Above $27.00

Posted Thursday, May 14, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Crude oil continues its COVID-19 recovery, posting gains for the third straight day. At press time (about 2:30 PM EST), July WTI futures are up more than $1.50 per barrel on the session. Bidders have grabbed hold of the global oil market as aggregate supply and demand are beginning to align. Although oil remains severely depressed, black gold is exhibiting its normal springtime seasonality.

Moving forward into the summer months, there’s a case to be made for bullish crude oil over the intermediate-term. The phased reopen of the global economy is underway; also, travel demand is set to increase throughout June, July, August, and September. In addition, OPEC+ is expected to hold production cuts firm until at least July 1. When coupled with a steep reduction in U.S. shale output, the stage is set for a summertime rally that may challenge the $40.00 handle.

For today, July WTI crude futures are on the bull. Let’s dig into the short-term technicals and see which way price is likely headed by the weekend break.

July WTI Crude Rallies Above $27.50

Right now, bidders are in full control of July WTI futures. Consequently, prices have broken out of consolidation and are headed toward $30.00.

July WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
July WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the key levels to watch in this market:

  • Resistance(1): 62% Current Wave Retracement, $28.34
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, $25.84

Bottom Line: If we see July WTI crude continue to rally, a shorting opportunity will come into play. Until elected, I’ll have sell orders queued up from $28.24. With an initial stop at $28.56, this trade produces 20 ticks on a sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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