British Economy to Contract by 8% in 2020: EY Item Club

Latest estimates by the EY Item Club indicate that Britain’s economy could see a contraction by as much as 8% this year as a result of the coronavirus crisis, while its effects on the economy could last until at least 2023. The EY Item Club revised its outlook for the British economy lower after April’s GDP revealed a 20.4% contraction.

In April, this group of economists had forecast a 6.8% contraction for the year. Meanwhile, the expected contraction in Q2 2020 has also been revised higher, from 13% to 15% in the latest estimates.

Chief economist at EY, Mark Gregory, observes, “This is an undoubtedly challenging environment for businesses and forecasting is extremely difficult. We’ve made some significant adjustments to our GDP expectations compared to what the data told us just six weeks ago.”

According to EY, consumer spending across Britain could fall by 17% in the current quarter and by 8.7% for the entire year, but could see a rebound next year. Meanwhile, total investment could see a decline by 13.7% in 2020.