Forex Signals Brief for Jun 19: Retail Sales in Focus to End Week
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
US markets have continued to maintain their holding pattern as it’s becoming clearer that investors are now a little gun shy.
After a big recovery to date, it looks like there is some work to do for many of the major asset classes to do to break out of their current tight ranges.
We did see the GBP/USD show some weakness after the BOE came out and added more stimulus measures. While the SPX was largely unchanged, even though Ray Dalio suggested investors could be staring down the prospect of a lost decade ahead.
At the same time, the Greenback did start to push higher and it is now starting to look like it has formed a bit of a base on the charts, so that could see the major forex pairs under some pressure headed into next week.
The Data Agenda
Data is a little light on to end the trading week, but we will see two countries reporting on retail sales.
The UK is first up and they are looking at a sharp recovery in May to 5.7% after the peak of the COVID enforced lockdown measures saw a -18.1% fall. While this is an improvement, social distancing is still well and truly in place and with many people facing the prospect of working from throughout 2020, there will be some weakness in retail sales numbers ahead.
The next retail sales data will be out of Canada and this is the April figure which is expected to show -13.5%. Just note, that the retail sales figures sometimes lag so it is important to make sure you’re watching the correct month. Either way, the USD/CAD will be on watch.
For USD watchers, we again have some more comments from Fed Boss Powell, but he might have run his race this week. While there will also be some other FOMC speakers, but it’s unlikely that there will be anything new of note.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team hit 1 winner from 2 trades yesterday, for a 50% strike rate as volatility eased off.
Make sure you follow our live signals as we look for more opportunities to close out the week.
AUD/USD – Active Signal
The AUD/USD is starting to slow down, but there is a big support level at 0.6800. We are long looking for a quick bounce here.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
We’ve been short the EUR/USD nearly all week long and it is slowly starting to breakdown. The chart is looking bearish so there could be more downside ahead.
BTC is still sitting in a consolidating phase and so far support below at $9,200 is holding.
There’s no real fundamental news at present, so we sit and wait for a technical break to come.