Forex Signals Brief for Jul 2: Non-Farm Payrolls Ahead
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
US markets managed to finish the session in the green for yet another day, even against the backdrop of a ‘glass half empty’ Fed.
The FOMC minutes were released, which showed that the board are still somewhat cautious and uncertain of what lies ahead. There does appear to be plenty of support for leaving rates low until inflation can get back towards their target band.
At the same time, we also saw the latest ADP jobs report which came in a little below expectation. If you recall last month the ADP number set the tone for a big improvement in the jobs market. One that really defied expectations and made plenty of economists look a little bit silly.
Despite the negative news, we also heard that Pfizer is saying its early stage COVID-19 vaccine trials have produced optimistic results – which of course, lifted sentiment and the market.
The Data Agenda
All the attention today will be on the US jobs situation. The non-farm payroll data is out a day early with the Independence Day holiday upon us.
The hope today is for 3 million jobs to have been created, while the jobless rate should coming in at 12.3%.
Markets will also be keeping an eye on jobless claims, which has started to become a bit of a problem. We are continually seeing new claims coming in around the 1.3-1.5 million mark and that can’t seem to drop. While continuing claims are still about 19 million.
So for all the hopes of a recovery, there appears to be plenty of work to do.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team hit 3 winners from 7 trades yesterday, in what was a very busy session to start the new month.
USD/JPY – Active Signal
The USD/JPY is grinding higher but overall has been seeing some low volatility lately. We are looking looking for further upside.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The EUR/USD has been making a series of lower highs and so far is holding this downtrend. We are short looking for a break lower.
As I’ve been saying, clearly, Bitcoin is a risk-on trade now, which is an interesting one.