Forex Signals Brief for Jul 24: Will the Rally Run Out of Steam?
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
Yesterday, we saw the first signs of weakness in risk assets after what has been a relatively strong period.
Again it was US jobless claims that underlined that the economy is not where many want it to be. Once again new claims came in at 1.4 million, which was above expectations and higher than the prior number. Only last week, there were hopes this number would start to fall, but as yet, new claims are sitting steady.
This goes hand in hand, with restrictions not easing in many states of the US and around the world for that matter. While the week got underway on the positive after hopes of a vaccine, there are clearly still some concerns about the near-term.
As such, we saw the SPX fall away along with the other key risk assets such as the AUD/USD. While there was a clear move back towards the safety of the USD/JPY and USD/CHF.
The Data Agenda
It’s been a thin calendar in Europe this week, however, today there will be some numbers that will be market moving.
Up first, we turn to the UK where we get the latest data on retail sales. The GBP/USD will also be looking towards some key PMI releases later in the session with both manufacturing and services due for release.
Out of Europe, it is again PMI data that will be of most interest to the EUR/USD. German manufacturing PMI is the main event for the day here, while we shouldn’t discount the various Eurozone releases.
Finally to the US and we get a look at new homes sales, while there will also be some preliminary releases of manufacturing and services PMI.
But overall, this is a day where we’ll be waiting to see how sentiment is holding up, as we head into the weekend.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team hit 2 winners from 3 trades yesterday, for another positive session this week.
There is usually movement as we head into the weekend, so keep watching the forex signals page as volatility will likely increase.
DAX – Pending Signal
The DAX has been trending higher and really following the lead of US equities. While there are some wobbles, we must keep looking to the long side here.
EUR/JPY – Pending Signal
The EUR/JPY remains bullish at the moment, but we can see that price has run into the prior high. A break above that point, which is 124.00, would be a bullish signal for us.
BTC is still holding above the $9,500 level, for the time being, but we will watch if it can hold up over the next 24 hours.
For me, ETH remains the most interesting trade in this space at the moment. As we can see, price has broken out but is now right at that $280 level, which is the highs of earlier in the year. It’s the strongest at the moment, and a break above that point would be very bullish.