A recent study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates that a second lockdown amid a resurgence in coronavirus cases could cost London £2bn in annual costs. The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, as well as health secretary Matt Hancock are considering imposing a fresh lockdown as cases continue to surge.
The CEBR states that economic recovery could be impacted if a second lockdown is imposed, but consumer and business confidence may not decline further. It has also expressed hope that more fiscal measures could support the economy in such a scenario. The study indicates that several companies face the threat of going under due to the trying circumstances caused by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
At the height of the lockdown, north east England was losing around £70m a day, about 34% of gross value added (GVA) or its contribution to the GDP. In case the region goes back into another lockdown, the GVA costs will be roughly the same.
However, a partial lockdown could offer more hope, both to the economy and in controlling the spread of infections. The CEBR has also revised its estimates for Q4 GDP, cautioning that it could be 3-5% lower than the Q3 GDP.