As we roll toward October, it looks like conventional seasonality for WTI crude oil is being challenged. Inventories continue to shrink and prices are establishing a foothold north of $40.00 per barrel. Although each of these observations is relatively minor in nature, they do buck conventional end-of-summer trends. For the time being, energy traders are in a slightly-optimistic holding pattern as September draws to a close.

Earlier today, the EIA released its scheduled crude oil stocks report, ending the weekly inventory cycle. Here is a quick look at the hard data:

Event                                            Actual                 Projected              Previous

API Stocks Change                     0.691M                    NA                        -9.571M

EIA Stocks Change                    -1.639M                 -2.325M                 -4.389M

Both the API and EIA reports showed positive changes from last week’s figures. However, supplies are still more or less in contraction as the peak demand summer season winds down. With supply figures like this, prolonged consolidation in WTI crude will come as no surprise ahead of October 1.

WTI Crude Oil Consolidates, USD/CAD Rallies

It has been another ho-hum day for October WTI crude oil futures. Prices are holding near the $40.00 handle amid moderate participation. Subsequently, the USD/CAD is trading near weekly highs, just above the 1.3350 level.

Here are the levels worth watching going into the Friday forex session: 

• Resistance(1): 62% Current Wave, 1.3438
• Resistance(2): Bollinger MP, 1.3567
• Support(1): Weekly SMA, 1.3330

Bottom Line: If WTI crude oil shows weakness over the next 48 hours, a shorting opportunity may set up in the USD/CAD. Until Friday’s closing bell, I’ll have sell orders in the queue from 1.3434 in the USD/CAD. With an initial stop loss at 1.3459, this trade produces 25 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.