Weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks Report Misses Projections

Posted Wednesday, September 30, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It’s Wednesday and that means that the weekly crude oil inventory cycle is complete. For most of September, oil supplies have been on the downtick, bucking traditional fall seasonality. This week proved to be no different as the API and EIA gave their scheduled briefs. However, not much has changed in the WTI markets. November WTI crude is trading in the vicinity of $40.00, as it has for the past two weeks.

EIA, API Release Their Weekly Reports

This week’s crude oil supply figures from the EIA and API came in negative. For the time being, stocks continue to decrease at a moderate rate:

Event                                                Actual              Projected        Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks                     -0.831M                 NA                 0.691M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks                     -1.980M              1.569M            -1.639M

All in all, these figures don’t tell us much. It appears that many demand-side concerns are unfounded and U.S. production remains severely depressed. Nonetheless, we should begin seeing more consistent supply builds as the year wears on.

Today’s action in November WTI crude oil futures has been positive. Let’s dig into the daily technicals and see if we can spot a trade or two.

November WTI Crude Oil Futures Return To $40.00

Following yesterday’s $2.00+ dollar dump, November WTI is back on the bull. Some of the weekly losses have been pared as price has returned to the $40.00 area.

November WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
November WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are two levels to keep a close eye on for the rest of the day:

  • Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, $40.16
  • Support(1): Daily SMA, $39.43

Overview: As of this writing (about 1:30 PM EST), November WTI crude oil is trading in a noncommittal technical area on the daily chart. However, the intermediate-term trend remains bullish as this market tightens.

Ultimately, COVID-19 demand questions and fall/winter seasonality point to a long-term bearish outlook for WTI. Tomorrow is the first trading day of October ― if we see a significant selloff ahead of the weekend, the run to $35.00-$30.00 may be on.

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