Trump Impeached Again, Greenback Lags

Posted Thursday, January 14, 2021 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

For the second time in two calendar years, the POTUS has been impeached. Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald J. Trump 232 to 197 on charges of “inciting a violent insurrection against the United States government.” The results of the proceedings came as little surprise. However, 10 Republican House members did vote to impeach.

Of course, being impeached in the House and then convicted in the Senate are two very different things. Currently, the odds of Trump being convicted by the Senate stand at roughly 3/1. Thus far, the markets don’t seem too concerned about politics. At the midway point of the Wall Street session, the DJIA DOW (+125), S&P 500 SPX (+8), and NASDAQ (+50) are all in the green.

For the USD, things aren’t going so smoothly against the majors. Rates are slipping, due in large part to this morning’s disappointing jobs reports. Here are the highlights:

  • Continuing Jobless Claims (Jan. 2) came in at 5.271 million, well above projections (5.061 million) and the previous release (5.072 million). 
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Jan. 9) came in at 965,000. This figure is much higher than projections (795,000) and last week’s numbers (816,000).

To sum up, it looks like the U.S. labor market continues to degrade, suggesting that more COVID-19 aid may be needed. While there are no certainties with the incoming Biden administration, the table is set for a massive post-Trump stimulus package.

USD Lags Following Trump Impeachment #2

The USD/JPY has put in a whipsaw session with rates consolidating just above daily downside support. 

USD/JPY, Daily Chart

Here are two levels to watch as the session progresses:

  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 103.59
  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 103.51

Bottom Line: If we see a retest of the Daily SMA, a long trade may come into play for the USD/JPY. For the remainder of the session, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from 103.52. With an initial stop loss at 103.24, this trade produces 25 pips on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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