Trump Impeachment Trial #2 Underway, S&P 500 In The Red - Forex News by FX Leaders
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Trump Impeachment Trial #2 Underway, S&P 500 In The Red

Posted Tuesday, February 9, 2021 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The much-anticipated Trump impeachment trial number two is underway, with Republican and Democratic Senators debating the proceedings’ Constitutional standing. Realistically, this week’s hearings won’t be much of a market-mover. Nonetheless, the U.S. indices are showing weakness. At the midway point of the Wall Street session, the DJIA DOW (-32), S&P 500 SPX (-5), and NASDAQ (+21) are all on the bear.

At this point, the Senatorial trial appears to be partisan politics, nothing more. Over at Predictit.org, the odds of Trump being convicted stand at a little under 20/1. In short, most honest pundits view the trial as being a search for television ratings and political standing ― nothing more.

So, what’s the big deal about the Senatorial trial? The answer lies in the amount of time it will take the Senate to render a verdict. At this point, the trial is expected to be wrapped up sometime next week. However, it could drag into late-February, further delaying COVID-19 stimulus relief. If Biden’s $1.9 trillion aid bill does not gain Congressional approval by mid-March, the actual dissemination of funds may be kicked back into April. Given the IRS tax deadline of mid-April, the timeline for Biden’s first stimulus bill may be extended deep into the spring. 

Trump Trial Underway, S&P 500 Stumbles

It’s been a strong start to 2021 for the S&P 500 and U.S. equities. Large-cap stocks are off slightly today, just below all-time highs.

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March E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Weekly Chart

Overview: Right now, it’s all about stimulus and USD devaluation for American stocks. And, while Trump’s impeachment trial won’t have a direct impact on the markets, it may significantly delay more COVID-19 stimulus. If we see the Senate falter and not deliver a quick verdict, stocks may be headed for a February lull amid the Congressional logjam.

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About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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