NFP Comes In Strong, Markets Remain Shaky - Forex News by FX Leaders
NFP

NFP Comes In Strong, Markets Remain Shaky

Posted Friday, March 5, 2021 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The tone is changing on Wall Street with rising bond yields driving investor angst. At the midway point of the U.S. session, the DJIA DOW (+240), S&P 500 SPX (+28), and NASDAQ (+25) have reversed early losses. With only a few hours to go until the weekend break, it looks like the markets are discounting this morning’s strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

It’s the first Friday of the month and that means Nonfarm Payrolls. Here’s a look at the highlights:

Event                                                       Actual                  Projected            Previous

NFP (February)                                        379K                         182K                     166K

Unemployment Rate (February)           6.2%                          6.3%                     6.3%

Trade Balance (January)                       -68.20B                    -67.50B               -67.00B

The headliner of this group is the uptick in U.S. NFP. The figure came in at 379,000, well above projections of 182,000. This is a solid figure and one that has helped drive the Unemployment Rate down marginally.

Over the past 72 hours, we have seen an epic shift in the tone on Wall Street. Right now, the U.S. indices are exhibiting an extremely strong negative correlation to the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note. This will be an interesting relationship to watch as we move deeper into March.

NFP Strong, NASDAQ Once Again On The Ropes

This week has been a dismal one for NASDAQ backers. It’s undeniable that many big tech and growth companies are ridiculously overvalued ― is the bubble beginning to burst?

NFP
March E-mini NASDAQ Futures (NQ), Weekly Chart

As we move into the weekend, there’s one key level on my radar:

  • Support(1): Weekly SMA, 12,154.25

Bottom Line: Following this morning’s NFP report, the March E-mini NASDAQ contract is all over the board. Subsequently, a late-session rally or sell-off is very probable. If we see a late sell-off, I’ll have buy orders ready from the Weekly SMA at 12,155.75. With an initial stop loss at 12,144.75, this trade produces 44 ticks on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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