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EUR/USD Choppy Session Continues – Quick Intraday Outlook!

Posted Friday, March 19, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1915 after placing a high of 1.1990 and a low of 1.1906. EUR/USD lost most of its previous day gains amid the US dollar’s strength on Thursday. The US Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies rose above 92 and added further pressure on the pair. The rise in the US dollar index could be attributed to the recent surge in US Treasury yields that rose to 13-months highest level at 1.74% on Thursday.

Apart from the US dollar, the latest comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde could also be a reason behind the EUR/USD pair’s losses on Thursday. Lagarde said that the bank would not respond to the inflation blips as prices in the euro area rose. Lagarde said that the prices were already rising, and the coronavirus pandemic exacerbated the surge. She added that there was a need to remain cautious that inflation numbers will rise throughout 2021. She expressed her views and said that a transitory nature’s short-term inflation movement was not such a big concern as the bank was trying to prevent the yields step ahead of economic developments. She said that ECB forecast an inflation rate of 1.5% in 2021 and 1.2% in 2022.

On the data front, at 14:00 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance dropped to 1.59B against the expected 7.05B and weighed on the single currency Euro and added further losses in EUR/USD. At 15:00 GMT, the Trade Balance from the Eurozone also declined to 24.2B against the expected 38.8B and weighed on Euro that added in the downward pressure on the pair.

From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 51.8 against the forecasted 22.5 and supported the US dollar and added further in the losses in EUR/USD. The Unemployment Claims from the last week also rose to 770K against the forecast 704K and weighed on the US dollar, and capped further losses in this pair. At 19:00 GMT, the CB Leading Index dropped to 0.2% against the predicted 0.3%, weighed on the US dollar, and capped further downside.Furthermore, the new lockdown restrictions in many European countries to fight the third wave of the coronavirus also kept the single currency Euro under pressure and added to EUR/USD losses on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1884 1.1968
1.1853 1.2021
1.1801 1.2051
Pivot point: 1.1937The EUR/USD currency pair’s profit-taking has driven sharp selling in the pair as it’s now trading around 1.1919 level. The EUR/USD pair is likely to face immediate resistance at 1.1929, and above this, the next resistance stays around the 1.1990 level. In contrast, the support hold around the 1.1892 marks. A bearish breakout of 1.1892 level can lead the price towards the 1.1839 area. Elsewhere, the violation of the 1.1929 resistance level can extend further buying trend until 1.1989 level today. Good luck!
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