Weekly Outlook, Mar 29-Apr 2: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

The broad-based U.S. dollar will end this week on the bullish track and traded near multi-month highs against most major currencies. The dollar was being supported by a wave of optimism over improving U.S. economic data, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines, and rising Treasury yields. The U.S. dollar still has the opportunity to rise against the euro, but its gains against other currencies in the past few weeks have been so rapid that some analysts warn against chasing the dollar higher from current levels. Conversely, the dollar may face some losses as the prevalent upbeat market mood tends to undermine the market’s safe-haven demand.

Looking forward to the coming week, the series of Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment rates, along with Final GDP q/q and OPEC-JMMC Meetings, can drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on the move. Apart from this, the long-lasting US-China trade tussle, America-Iran tussle, and coronavirus headlines will also closely follow as they could play a key role in determining risk levels in the market.

Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

1) JPY – Unemployment Rate – Monday, 23:30 GMT

This data is normally released by the Japan Statistics Bureau, which measures the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. However, the rate hikes indicate a lack of expansion within the Japanese labor market. This rise, in turn, tends to weaken the Japanese economy. Thus, the low reading is seen as positive or bullish for the JPY currency; conversely, the high figure is seen as negative (or bearish) the JPY currency.

Previous release
ACTUAL:2.9 %
DEV:-1.34
CONS:3 %
DATE:03/01/2021 23:30

2) JPY – Retail Sales y/y – Monday, 23:50 GMTThis data is released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, which measures the total sales made through a business location in which the principal activity is the sale of merchandise and related services to the general public for household or personal consumption. Changes in Retail Sales are broadly followed as an important indicator of consumer spending. Therefore, the high figures are seen as bullish for the JPY currency; conversely, the low figures are negative (or bearish for the JPY currency.

Previous release
ACTUAL:-2.4 %
DEV:0.03
CONS:-2.6 %
DATE:02/25/2021 23:50

3) USD – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, 15:00 GMT

This data is released by the Conference Board, which measures confidence that people have in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence cites economic development; conversely, a low level drives an economic downturn. In simple words, the high reading is understood as positive or bullish for the USD currency; conversely, the low reading is seen as negative or bullish for the USD currency.

Note: Due to the Conference Board’s restrictions, our Economic Calendar does not provide this indicator’s figures.

Previous release
ACTUAL:–
DEV:–
CONS:–
DATE:02/23/2021 15:00

4) GBP – UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) – Wednesday, 7:00 GMT

The Office for National Statistics releases this data, measuring the total value of all goods and services produced by the U.K. The GDP is understood as a gross measure of U.K. economic activity and health. In simple words, the high figure has a bullish effect on the GBP currency; likewise, the low figures are considered negative for the GBP currency.

Previous release
ACTUAL:-7.8 %
DEV:0.65
CONS:-8.1 %
DATE:02/12/2021 07:00

5) CAD – Gross Domestic Product (MoM) – Wednesday, 13:30 GMT

Statistics Canada typically releases this data, which is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is understood as a gross measure of Canadian economic activity and health. In simple words, the high figure has a bullish effect on the CAD currency; likewise, the low figures are considered negative for the CAD currency.Previous release
ACTUAL:0.1 %
DEV:-0.57
CONS:0.3 %
DATE:03/02/2021 13:305) Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday, 15:30 GMT

This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a U.S. key indicator and mostly affects the Canadian dollar due to Canada’s sizable energy sector. It measures supply and demand imbalances in the market, leading to changes in production levels and price volatility. ‘Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is seen as bullish for USD currencyPrevious release
ACTUAL:1.912 M
DEV:0.22
CONS:-0.272 M
DATE:03/24/2021 14:306) OPEC-JMMC Meetings: – Thursday – All Day

These meetings are attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations. However, the purpose of this meeting is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in efforts to secure an efficient, economical, and regular supply of petroleum to consumers. They discuss multiple issues concerning energy markets and, most importantly, agree on how much oil they will produce. When the meeting is over, the officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. As a result, the formal statement covering policy shifts and meeting objectives is released after the meetings have concluded.7) USD – US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 15:00 GMT:

ISM Manufacturing PMI:
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index normally released this data, which shows business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It is one of the leading indicators of the overall economic situation in the United States. The result above 50 would be positive (or bullish) for the greenback; conversely, the result below 50 is seen as bearish for the currency.

Previous release
ACTUAL:60.8
DEV:0.86
CONS:58.8
DATE:03/01/2021 15:00

8) USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – Friday, 13:30 GMT

This data is normally released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows the number of new jobs created during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be remarkably volatile due to its high relation with the Central Bank’s economic policy decisions. In that way, the high reading is understood as bullish for the USD currency; conversely, the low reading is considered as bearish for the USD currency.Previous release
ACTUAL:379 K
DEV:1.76
CONS:182 K
DATE:03/05/2021 13:309) USD – Unemployment Rate – Friday, 13:30 GMT

This data is normally released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is one of the key indicators for the U.S. Economy. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. If the rate goes upward, it shows a lack of expansion within the U.S. labor market. As a result, the rise in the unemployment rate leads to weakness in the U.S. economy. However, the low figure is seen as bullish for the USD; conversely, the rise is seen as negative or bearish for the USD currency.

Previous release
ACTUAL:6.2 %
DEV:-0.39
CONS:6.3 %
DATE:03/05/2021 13:30