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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Approaches 2020 COVID-19 Panic High

Posted Thursday, April 1, 2021 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The Greenback is on the ropes to open April, struggling against the majors. Today’s key movers have been the EUR/USD (+0.38%), USD/CHF (-0.28%), USD/JPY (-0.08%) and GBP/USD (+0.39%). As we dig deeper into late-week forex trade, it appears as though the dollar may be in for a springtime retracement.

This morning brought an active U.S. economic calendar. Here’s a brief look at the highlights:

Event                                                   Actual                        Projected              Previous

Challenger Job Cuts (March)             30.603K                         NA                         34.531K

Continuing Jobless Claims                3.794M                         3.775M                  3.840M

Initial Jobless Claims                            719K                           680K                       658K

ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)       64.7                              61.3                         60.8

On the U.S. labour front, Initial Jobless Claims spiked week-over-week by 61,000. While this is a significant uptick, it should come as no surprise given the Biden administration’s extension of enhanced unemployment benefits until September. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for March came in at a solid 64.7, well above projections and the previous release. As of 1 April 2021, it looks like U.S. manufacturing is largely back online. 

Despite the solid manufacturing figures, the Greenback is lagging versus the majors. However, March was still an exceedingly positive month for the dollar. In fact, the USD/JPY is closing in on 2020’s COVID-19 panic high.

USD/JPY Posts Another Bullish Week

Barring a major Friday turnaround, the USD/JPY will extend its weekly winning streak to two. Rates are holding above 110.50 and 2020’s high is coming into view.

USD/JPY, Weekly Chart
USD/JPY, Weekly Chart

Bottom Line: If we see the USD/JPY extend March’s gains, a shorting opportunity from the COVID-19 Panic High (112.22) may come into play. Until elected, I’ll have sell orders in the queue from 111.89. With an initial stop loss at 112.89, this trade produces a 100 pips profit on a 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

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